My older sister just called me, concerned about the war that has shattered the fragile peace in Ukraine. She’s concerned for the poor souls terrified by Russia’s bullets and bombs, and concerned for the rest of us as shock waves spread beyond the war zone, threatening the stability of our economies and the security of Europe.
I could only respond with my cheerless conviction after having covered warfare around the world, something people looking for assurance in a crisis don’t always like to hear: Life is not a fairy tale. Some stories don’t have a happy ending.
That is the sad truth now for Ukrainians victimized by Russia’s war and, because of its repercussions, eventually for the rest of us.
And it’s more certain by the hour that President Putin probably won’t stop an inch short of his goals, which now pretty obviously are to absorb much or even all of Ukraine, independent and sovereign for more than 30 years, back into Mother Russia. And then after that, who knows? What’s more, if he hasn’t yet reversed course, despite the economic cataclysm he is raining upon his own land from the sanctions we’re slapping down, it confirms two things: that if the long-suffering Russian people have to suffer more, that’s okay with him, and that he has weighed the risks of his invasion against the rewards he seeks, and the rewards won out.
The irony for Putin might be that his scales need recalibration. More than 20 years ago, then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright met Putin for the first time and wrote in her journal that the new president of Russia was “determined to restore its greatness.”
But if greatness is to be founded on the return of old Soviet states to the fold, his move might backfire because if anything, he has reinforced their will to side with the West. He also says he wants NATO to back off his borders, but by invading Ukraine, he has helped cement the alliance and induced the United States to place more American troops in NATO nations closer to his homeland.
Still though, the reality is, we can punish Putin, but we can’t stop him. President Biden promised again today in his television address that “our forces are not and will not be engaged with Russian forces in Ukraine,” because it could lead to unthinkable consequences nobody wants, consequences that Putin himself put on the table in his own speech today from Moscow when he menacingly said that Russia “remains one of the most powerful nuclear states.”
That’s not just a fact, it’s a threat.
We also can make Putin an international pariah, but maybe that doesn’t matter much to a man whose allies include fellow leaders of authoritarian states like China and North Korea, Belarus and Iran. Maybe it doesn’t matter to an old KGB agent who Madeleine Albright described chillingly after meeting him on that first visit as “small and pale, so cold as to be almost reptilian,” a man about whom she presciently observed at the time, “His competition of choice is not chess… but rather judo.”
That helps explain how the man lies without remorse. First he said that his troops were assembled at Ukraine’s borders for military exercises, but that they would not invade. Then he said they were on a “special military operation” to be “peacekeepers” to defend people in two parts of eastern Ukraine from “persecution and genocide by the Kyiv regime.” Then he attacked the whole country, including the capital, from almost every side.
He gives peacekeeping a whole new definition.
His warning to those who stand in his way? “Anyone who tries to interfere with us, or even more so, to create threats for our country and our people, must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never before experienced in your history.”
That’s judo, not chess.
Where does it lead? On the positive side, a more united Western alliance, including those former states of the Soviet Union. On the negative side, those same states are left wondering what Putin plans for them. President Biden said this afternoon, “This is a dangerous moment for all of Europe,” and it is. After 80 years of peace, the attack on Ukraine is an attack on Europe. It also might even inspire authoritarian leaders of a few nations that are members of NATO or the European Union, nations like Hungary, Poland and Turkey, to see Putin’s success as a sign that they can deal with dissidents within or on their borders the same way. And finally, it might create a humanitarian crisis at the gates of our allies as Ukrainians trying to get out, finally do.
Ukrainians trying every way to escape Kyiv.
So we can scream to the heavens, but Putin might not be moved. Last night at the United Nations, Ukraine’s UN ambassador scolded Russia’s, saying, "There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell.” Putin doesn’t seem scared. Biden said in his address today, “Putin chose this war, and now he and his country will bear the consequences.” Putin doesn’t seem to care.
Before signing off, one more thought about Donald Trump’s un-American utterances on Ukraine, which is important to reiterate as the crisis grows because he aspires to lead our nation again and it’s crucial to see him for what he is. In a podcast interview Tuesday, you’ll recall, he described Putin’s war plans as “genius.” Not a word of condemnation for a country breaking every international norm and invading a weaker neighbor, just praise. Then yesterday, at a GOP donors dinner at Mar-a-Lago, he congratulated Putin for “taking over a country” at little cost and concluded, “I’d say that’s pretty smart.” After that, defying the proud American principle that when it comes to foreign crises, “politics stops at the water’s edge,” he said on Fox that Putin “sees the weakness and the incompetence and the stupidity of this administration.”
As he spoke, Russian rockets already were raining down on Ukraine. But again, from Trump, it was condemnation for America, not for Putin. Right in the middle of a test of America’s strength. Right in the middle of a crisis for an ally. Right in the middle of a face-off between two superpowers.
My sister has good reason to be concerned about the war in Ukraine. We all have good reason to be concerned about this unpatriotic former president and those who follow his lead here at home.
Over almost five decades Greg Dobbs has been a correspondent for two television networks including ABC News, a political columnist for The Denver Post and syndicated columnist for Scripps newspapers, a moderator on Rocky Mountain PBS, and author of two books, including one about the life of a foreign correspondent called “Life in the Wrong Lane.” He has covered presidencies and politics at home and international crises around the globe, from Afghanistan to South Africa, from Iran to Egypt, from the Soviet Union to Saudi Arabia, from Nicaragua to Namibia, from Vietnam to Venezuela, from Libya to Liberia, from Panama to Poland. Dobbs has won three Emmys, and the Distinguished Service Award from the Society of Professional Journalists.
Well done Greg, your past experience and long time contacts help us see ….not into the mind of the mad man Putin…but into past history. The Sudetenland area of Czechoslovakia in 1938…Hitler moving in to claim the former Bohemia and “aid” German citizens. Sound familiar…..helping the Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine. Of course just a precursor to him taking other countries.
Has it begun…..the demise of democratic people…..countries?
It must be said, Greg, so thank you, once more. Your perspective as one who actively covered so many such events is so important right now. Life is NOT a fairytale.