How will this war end?
The late-June rebellion by the kingpin and his soldiers from Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group gave new life to that question. But since the life of the rebellion was so surprisingly short, any hope that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march toward Moscow would drive a change in Russia’s leadership quickly became moot. However, it is a question still worth asking because the outcome is anybody’s guess.
Although there are analysts who will speculate and extrapolate to answer the question about how the war will end, I think the wisest course is just to lay out the possibilities. So at risk of brushstrokes far too broad, here they are.
The most odious option is a total Russian victory. Although the shortcomings of its army have been unmasked and the quick collapse of its sovereign neighbor never happened, a total victory is still not implausible. Russia’s army might just outlast Ukraine’s. It has more men, it has more munitions, and while the West now has guaranteed that it will resupply and strengthen Ukraine’s arsenal of weapons, there are reports that Western production lines aren’t actually keeping up with the pace of the war. What’s more, Russia has patrons too: China and Iran. If Russian president Putin is determined enough to keep throwing cannon fodder into the war, he has a reserve of men to do it. Ukraine’s president Zelensky doesn’t.
Or, Russia could achieve a partial enough conquest to give it a path out of the war. What that would require is that it strengthen and secure its hold on the four Ukrainian territories it illegally annexed last year and, at the same time, not give up Crimea, which it took nine years ago. Putin’s “objectives” have changed since his invasion last year— at different times he said that he would “denazify” Ukraine, or that he would restore Russian citizenship to its Russian-leaning citizens, or that he would protect his motherland against the creeping intrusion of the West. But he could get out simply by declaring victory in those annexed territories— he just announced local elections for September— and insisting that his objectives have been met.
There is another possibility that could play into Russia’s hands. There are reports that there have been more than a dozen attempts on the life of President Zelensky, most of them in the early days of the war. He himself has joked about them, telling Axios in an interview, “When it becomes repetitive, do you remember that film, 'Groundhog Day’? I wake up in the morning and it's still the same.” But if his enemies tried before, they can try again and eventually, one might succeed. Although the Ukrainians have shown the world that they are unbelievably brave and spiritually undeterred by the merciless missiles from Russian guns, it is Zelensky more than anyone else, with his visits to the war zones, his appeals to Western advocates, and his nightly addresses to his people, who has held them together. If he dies, the unflagging spirit of Ukraine’s people could die with him.
Then there’s the possibility on which a lot of analysts lay odds: a negotiated settlement. Both sides have drawn their lines in the sand and the distance between those lines right now seems insurmountable. Zelensky told CNN at the beginning of the month, “We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea. And while Crimea is under the Russian occupation, it means only one thing: the war is not over yet.” Anything short of retaking Crimea, he said, “will not be victory.” But it’s conceivable that at some point, each side is going to lose its faith in a total victory, lose its taste for a years-long war, and give up on achieving its ultimate goals: for Russia, to absorb all of Ukraine and for Ukraine, to recapture every inch of what Russia has seized. In his book “Putin’s War on Ukraine,” Oxford international relations expert Samuel Ramani says, “Russia cannot win and cannot afford to lose the war.” But of course, those alternatives are incompatible because it can only end one way or the other and the thing is, it’s largely out of Russia’s hands. That’s why Putin might seek a settlement just to save face.
Or, negotiations could start and fail. Then, whether forced by political pressures or economic stress, each side’s backers might see no productive end to the war and so, despite their pledges of everlasting support, could abandon those pledges.
Of course just as there’s a plausible chance of a total Russian victory, there’s a plausible chance of a total Ukrainian victory too. It might be true that Ukraine’s current counteroffensive has not delivered the punch many expected, but it also might be true that its best is yet to come. This is only July. Western arms continue to come into the country and winter doesn’t start until December.
A Ukrainian victory might require some unlikely developments on the Russian side. There already has been a big one: the dissipation of the tenacious and treacherous Wagner army from the battlefield. And there could be another— for example, a palace putsch in the Kremlin by forces who decide to stop throwing good money after bad. But the most hopeful reason why Ukraine could prevail— besides steadfast support from the U.S. and other allies— is the spirit of its people. The Russians, at best, are fighting to reclaim land that once was theirs. The Ukrainians are struggling for the survival of their very homeland, battling for their very independence, fighting for their very lives. From my experience with war, motivations like those are not to be discounted. At least in the Bible, David had more to lose and he did beat Goliath.
No matter which of these outcomes we see though, it also is important to ask, what will the world look like afterward?
If Russia wins, it is probably emboldened. Vladimir Putin has made it very clear, he is determined to make Russia more powerful than it was when the Soviet Union fell apart. There are weak and vulnerable nations in Eastern Europe and Asia— mainly former Soviet states— that he might have his eye on. If not to absorb them into a Russian empire, then to create a wider buffer between his motherland and NATO.
On the other hand, no matter how the war ends, NATO is stronger, which was the last thing Putin wanted.
If Russia loses, Putin could be replaced by someone even more nationalistic, more paranoid, more hawkish than he is. Or, it could go the other way: a successor could be more amenable to peace and partnership in the world of nations. The most concerning prospect is, Putin might survive and take the nuclear shot the world hopes he won’t take, just to show that his deflated nation is not defeated.
Also if Russia loses, the Russian-Chinese “no limits” friendship might reach its limits and for the Western world become less of a threat.
Whether it wins or loses, Russia’s military is weakened. As with the Western weakness with weapons production, Russia is expending munitions faster than it can make them, and its flaws as a superpower fighting force have been exposed and exploited.
Cambridge historian Alexander Etkind takes it all a step further. In his book “Russia Against Modernity,” he sees a potential outcome where Russia’s one-time allies lose confidence in the superpower, walk away from their alliances, and the whole Russian federation falls apart.
There are worst-case scenarios at play here, and wishful thinking too. But one way or another, the war eventually must end. It is in our interest that it ends well for Ukraine, not for Russia.
Over more than five decades Greg Dobbs has been a correspondent for two television networks including ABC News, a political columnist for The Denver Post and syndicated columnist for Scripps newspapers, a moderator on Rocky Mountain PBS, and author of two books, including one about the life of a foreign correspondent called “Life in the Wrong Lane.” He has covered presidencies, politics, and the U.S. space program at home, and wars, natural disasters, and other crises around the globe, from Afghanistan to South Africa, from Iran to Egypt, from the Soviet Union to Saudi Arabia, from Nicaragua to Namibia, from Vietnam to Venezuela, from Libya to Liberia, from Panama to Poland. Dobbs has won three Emmys, the Distinguished Service Award from the Society of Professional Journalists, and as a 37-year resident of Colorado, a place in the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame.
Greg, I think this is the broadest and most thoughtful analysis of the war I have seen to date.
Brooks and Capehart should be quoting you on the PBS Newshour.
Thank you for your insights, hard-won as a foreign correspondent for all those decades.
Well stated Greg. God help the world if Putin continues til the last man standing.