(Dobbs) The Chance Of Getting Bogged Down?

“Bunker busters and boasts of military power. Look what that led to.”

Evidently we just bombed Iran’s nuclear program back into the Stone Age. But the story is bigger than that, the challenge is bigger than that. As last night’s New York Times headline spelled it out in all caps, “U.S. ENTERS WAR AGAINST IRAN.”

The pros and the cons don’t change. On the upside, if there’s anything to even negotiate anymore, this might at the very least bring the Iranians back to the table, this time with their tails between their legs. It might, especially if Israel takes further action, inspire popular uprisings on the streets of Iran and lead to a more modern and moderate regime.

And most of all, it definitely sets Iran’s nuclear ambitions back for several years, if not longer. This won’t just give the United States a higher level of comfort. It will elevate the comfort zone for the Israelis, and for American allies in the Gulf oil states. However nervous they might now be about any imminent expansion of the war, they have long feared a nuclear neighbor just across the Persian Gulf.

But those prospects must be tempered by the downside, including the “Q” word. As a good friend, a fellow journalist, wrote me last night, “Bunker busters and boasts of military power. Echos of what we heard during the initial bombing of Baghdad in 2003. Look what that led to.”

It led to incendiary scenarios about which I wrote two days ago when looking ahead to bombing Iran.

First, the shock and awe of our invasion in 2003 eroded into an almost interminable war where new terror groups came to life and the United States got bogged down. More than 4,400 Americans died.

Second, Iran probably still has the capacity to launch short- and medium-range missiles toward American military installations in the region, where tens of thousands of Americans are based. In some cases, Iran’s missiles are only minutes away.

Third, Iran could set mines or sink ships in the narrow choke point called the Straits of Hormuz, through which up to a quarter of the world’s oil and gas sails from the Persian Gulf to the open sea. The global economy would take a painful hit.

Fourth, the Iranian-backed Houthis, who still have some firepower, could break the truce they took on with Trump and resume their own attacks on Western ships navigating their way toward Europe and the U.S. through the Suez Canal.

Fifth, Iran could go all-in on terrorism. “Death to America” is an empty threat, but death to Americans is not. The terrorists on 9/11 brought a permanent change to our sense of security. They also killed almost 3,000 people.

Sixth, Iran’s foreign minister, following the American air strikes, promised there will be “everlasting consequences.” That could mean that Iran’s leadership, steeped in the most fanatical ideology of Islam, could choose to set the whole region on fire, even if they themselves go down in flames.

Seventh, pique in the radical corners of the Islamic world could lead to the births of new terror groups who want to set fires well behind their own borders.

Eighth, the prospect of regime change might be a case of “be careful what you wish for.” What we saw in the aftermath of regime change in Iraq and Libya was a descent into anarchy, instability, and chaos. The real cautionary tale might be what happened in 1979 in Iran itself, where the revolutionary change from one regime to another gave birth to an Islamic government that has kept the world on edge for more than 45 years now.

Ninth, the Israelis. They now have reason in the long term to feel more secure, knowing that Iran isn’t just “weeks” away from having a nuclear weapon, but in the short term, if Iran still has the power and the will to retaliate, Israel could find itself bombarded in a last-ditch crusade to obliterate the Jewish state. And however far-fetched it might sound, that could prompt Israel, which has nuclear weapons, to use them.

Finally, President Trump last night wrote on social media that any retaliation against the United States “WILL BE MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT.”

I know he means it, you know he means it, but could there be as much conceit in that threat as confidence? From Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan, we have made bad assumptions before about the infallible and swift success of American power.

On Friday I wrote, “Actively and openly joining Israel’s war against Iran might be the best answer to the Islamic Republic’s defiant threats against Western nations, but it also might open a Pandora’s box that makes the world as unstable and unsafe as ever.”

The jury hasn’t even seen what’s inside Pandora’s box, let alone reached a verdict. As my friend wrote, “Bunker busters and boasts of military power. Look what that led to.” The “Q” word is Quagmire.

Over more than five decades Greg Dobbs has been a correspondent for two television networks including ABC News, a political columnist for The Denver Post and syndicated columnist for Scripps newspapers, a moderator on Rocky Mountain PBS, and author of two books, including one about the life of a foreign correspondent called “Life in the Wrong Lane.” He also co-authored a book about the seminal year for baby boomers, called “1969: Are You Still Listening?” He has covered presidencies, politics, and the U.S. space program at home, and wars, natural disasters, and other crises around the globe, from Afghanistan to South Africa, from Iran to Egypt, from the Soviet Union to Saudi Arabia, from Nicaragua to Namibia, from Vietnam to Venezuela, from Libya to Liberia, from Panama to Poland. Dobbs has won three Emmys, the Distinguished Service Award from the Society of Professional Journalists, and as a 39-year resident of Colorado, a place in the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame.

You can learn more at GregDobbs.net