(Dobbs) Taiwan Is Like Ukraine: We Defend It Or We Desert It
For our values, for our security, there is no choice.
So Speaker Nancy Pelosi has stopped in Taiwan, whose autonomy the U.S. supports. And China, which believes it owns Taiwan, is irate.
China’s U.N. ambassador says his nation will not “sit idly by.” Its Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Pelosi’s stop "has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations.” The Chinese Communist Party warns that any move toward Taiwan’s independence “will be shattered by the powerful force of the Chinese people.”
The first sign of that force: the announcement by China’s People’s Liberation Army, just hours after Pelosi’s plane touched down, of “live-fire” drills Thursday through Sunday in waters all around Taiwan, some of which Taiwan claims as its own territory. China’s notice said, “The People’s Liberation Army’s struggle with Taiwan is going to intensify in frequency and it will escalate the scale of force to tackle the U.S. government’s provocations.”
The tone for all this incendiary rhetoric and conduct started with China’s President Xi when he spoke last week with President Biden, warning that if Speaker Pelosi were to make this stop, it would mean the United States is “playing with fire.”
I see it differently. I think it means the United States is fighting fire with fire. As it must. This isn’t just about the defending the sovereignty of an island. It’s about defending the sovereignty of a democracy. And, as with Russia and Ukraine, it’s about defying the lawlessness of an autocracy.
Of course, like most geopolitical calculations, it’s all a crap shoot. One school of thought says, China is a superpower now, China is proud, Xi rose to prominence on his determination to take back Taiwan, now he is angling for re-election by the Chinese Communist Party to a third term as president. Once he threatens force to absorb Taiwan, he cannot back down because he cannot lose face. “Face” is an historic concept in China. When you lose face, you lose dignity, you lose respect, you lose power.
This leads to the conclusion that in a game of chicken over Taiwan, the U.S. should pull away first, lest it provoke China into what could become a catastrophic conflict between the two superpowers.
The other school of thought says, the United States has to defy China and support Taiwan’s autonomy, Taiwan’s democracy, and that Pelosi’s trip is proof of our will to do that. Otherwise, we send a signal that we won’t act if China attacks Taiwan, and that we will let China dictate our policy and determine our alliances. What’s more, the United States has economic, political, and military interests in what China now sees as its own sphere of influence— particularly the shipping lanes of the South China Sea— and if we back down on the issue of Taiwan, we lose influence on everything else that matters.
Which leads to the conclusion that our reaction to this clash over Taiwan must be on a par with our reaction to the war in Ukraine. China wants to absorb a sovereign country, just as Russia is in the process of doing in Ukraine. We must stand with China’s prey, as we already stand with Russia’s. If we back off, other democracies might lose any faith they have that we will defend them if they need it. If we are weak, there might be no end to how far either aggressor will go to expand its own power on the planet. At our expense, and our allies’.
Of course after Presidents Xi and Putin declared last February in Beijing that their friendship has “no limits,” it is no surprise that Russia sides with China. The Kremlin’s spokesman said today that Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan “provokes the situation, leads to more tensions.” Given Russia’s patently provocative war on Ukraine, this is the quintessence of the pot calling the kettle black.
What’s more, Xi’s own saber-rattling rhetoric might not really be about Speaker Pelosi. Her visit might only be a scapegoat for his ambitions for a single China. He already made a major move in that direction with his incorporation of long-democratic Hong Kong into the autocracy of the People’s Republic of China, but it will not be complete as long as there’s a democratic Taiwan. Pelosi’s stop on the island doesn’t change a thing in terms of U.S. policy. The last equally high-ranking American leader to go there to show his support was Newt Gingrich, the Republican Speaker of the House, 25 years ago.
However, there is this one difference. 25 years ago, sabers were about all that China had to rattle. Today, it can back up its threats, which raises the specter of a miscalculation, or even a simple mistake. It was reported on China’s state-run media that as Pelosi’s plane approached Taiwan, Chinese fighter jets crossed the disputed demarcation line between the Taiwan and China. Then only hours later, the bulletin about “live-fire” drills.
A common trait of virtually every geopolitical calculation is that it can end up as a miscalculation— by China, by Russia, by the United States— with costly consequences for every side. If you are a superpower, that goes with the territory. From where I sit, our calculations should come down how President Biden has framed America’s foreign policy: democracies versus autocracies. They should come down to which costs are greater: defending democracies or capitulating to autocracies.
Put that way, staying strong for Taiwan— as with staying strong for Ukraine— are the risks we must take. I think for our values, for our security, there is no choice.
Over almost five decades Greg Dobbs has been a correspondent for two television networks including ABC News, a political columnist for The Denver Post and syndicated columnist for Scripps newspapers, a moderator on Rocky Mountain PBS, and author of two books, including one about the life of a foreign correspondent called “Life in the Wrong Lane.” He has covered presidencies and politics at home and international crises around the globe, from Afghanistan to South Africa, from Iran to Egypt, from the Soviet Union to Saudi Arabia, from Nicaragua to Namibia, from Vietnam to Venezuela, from Libya to Liberia, from Panama to Poland. Dobbs has won three Emmys, and the Distinguished Service Award from the Society of Professional Journalists.
Interesting your background made you an ‘internationalist’ rather than descending into the pessimism of ‘isolationism’…
Have you gotten to read Kevin Rudd’s ‘The Avoidable War’ yet? Highly recommended!!!
However I’ve never forgiven the Australians for denigrating Bush II and cowtowing to the Chinese back when they decided China was their economic future rather than the US… I was in Sydney then; interesting experience to see an ‘old ally’ change their stripes.
Well argued Greg. After 4 years of continual abdication by the then President while Putin’s lapdog, Biden’s years of experience and conviction do seem to be righting the ship.