Sweet.
It might be short-lived but that’s the best word I can think of for the mood today in Ukraine. The war is far from over, the victor is far from clear, but for the moment at least, with Ukrainian troops retaking the southern city (and much of the region) of Kherson, the blue and yellow flag of their nation flies in the city again and the tide has turned for Ukraine and against Russia.
It’s sweet on so many levels.
First, symbolically. When Russia conquered Kherson eight months ago, only a week after it launched its attack on Ukraine, it became the first provincial capital— the equivalent of a state capital in the U.S.— that Russia controlled. That mattered to Russians, who are proud of their history, since Kherson was established almost 250 years ago by the revered Catherine the Great as the central citadel of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. As it turns out, of 24 provinces in modern Ukraine, Kherson was the only capital Russia conquered in this war. Now it has none.
Second, logistically. Situated at the mouth of Ukraine’s longest and most important river, the Dnipro, where it pours into the Black Sea, Kherson has been considered crucial for Russia’s conquest of the Black Sea’s coastline. But as the Mississippi bisects the U.S., the Dnipro divides Ukraine.
Losing control there makes it harder for Russia to move on the cherished and contested seaport of Odessa, and even to defend its illegally annexed Crimea Peninsula. It might ultimately mean the end of Russia’s dream to capture the whole southern part of Ukraine.
Third, militarily. Estimates are that in its retreat across the Dnipro from the city of Kherson, Russia had to move between 15,000 and 20,000 troops to safer ground. Even Moscow’s Ministry of Defense conceded in a public statement, “Kherson [city] and adjacent settlements in the current conditions cannot be fully supplied and function.” A hard pill for Russia because according to Western analysts, the troops they withdrew are among the army’s best, and not the ill-trained ill-equipped cannon fodder Putin conscripted for the war in his “partial mobilization” only two months ago. As for weaponry, the ministry claimed, “Not a single piece of military equipment or weaponry was left behind.” Photographs prove otherwise.
Fourth, politically. It was only six weeks ago that Vladimir Putin officially annexed four regions in Ukraine, including Kherson, and triumphantly trumpeted at the ceremony, “I want the Kiev authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me, for everyone to remember. People living in Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are becoming our citizens. Forever.”
Forever didn’t last long. Putin has been attacked in recent days in his own nation, one side saying he bit off more than he could chew, the other side saying he didn’t bite hard enough. Either way, for a leader known to micromanage most everything about the war, losing Kherson does not make him look stronger.
Fifth, geopolitically. Abbas Gallyamov, one of Putin’s former confidants but now an independent and increasingly critical political commentator, said as losses started mounting less than a month ago, “This will mean he will go down in history as a loser.” Now, he sees repercussions not just for Putin’s prestige but for Putin’s power: “He is the central pillar in the construction of the system, and if he is shaking, the whole system is shaking.”
Sixth, morally. The citizens of Ukraine, who have suffered so much and have so much suffering still ahead of them, now have something to celebrate. You might remember citizens in Kiev proudly posing a month ago in front of an oversized mockup of a special stamp that was created immediately after the bridge that Russia built as as link to Crimea was blown up.
Well now, there’s an even newer stamp, its slogan echoing the words of Ukraine’s president Zelensky today on social media: “Kherson is ours.” Watermelons, by the way, are a proud product of Kherson.
We have to be realistic. In terms of manpower and munitions, despite its losses, Russia still has the upper hand in this war. But as Ukrainian troops are showing us, it might take more than manpower and munitions to win. As I’ve seen in most of the wars I’ve covered, it might also take the will to win.
You’d think the Russians would understand that. You’d think the memory would still be fresh of their own Soviet Union’s humiliating defeat in the late ‘80s in Afghanistan, despite its massive advantage in munitions and manpower. What made a difference was, the Afghans had the will to win. The Russians did not. Today, the Ukrainians are fighting for their sovereign land. The Russians are not.
The course of this war is not so decisive that it’s time to pop open the champagne. But it’s sweet enough right now that a glass of wine wouldn’t hurt.
Over almost five decades Greg Dobbs has been a correspondent for two television networks including ABC News, a political columnist for The Denver Post and syndicated columnist for Scripps newspapers, a moderator on Rocky Mountain PBS, and author of two books, including one about the life of a foreign correspondent called “Life in the Wrong Lane.” He has covered presidencies, politics, and the U.S. space program at home, and wars, natural disasters, and other crises around the globe, from Afghanistan to South Africa, from Iran to Egypt, from the Soviet Union to Saudi Arabia, from Nicaragua to Namibia, from Vietnam to Venezuela, from Libya to Liberia, from Panama to Poland. Dobbs has won three Emmys, the Distinguished Service Award from the Society of Professional Journalists, and as a 36-year resident of Colorado, a place in the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame.
I feel a shift in the zeitgeist...maybe Putin is now skiing downhill, as I believe DJ Drumpf is as well....Thanks again for a very helpful essay, Greg
It's a pity that more Russian citizens can not be informed of what this war is costing in the losses of
their brethren.