(Dobbs) All Is Not Lost In Ukraine. Far From It.
The war is far from over. But at least right now, momentum is on Ukraine's side.
Killing at least 40 unarmed civilians this weekend in a nine-story apartment building in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro isn’t winning. It’s terrorism. Firing the missile from a faraway long-range bomber isn’t winning. It’s murder.
And, it’s counterproductive. Because for every attack the Russians launch, the Ukrainians dig in deeper. Their army, their population, their president. Against all odds, they have made it impossible for Russia to say, “We’re winning.”
Of course I’ve reported from enough wars to know that no single side wins every battle, no single side loses them all. I’ve seen enough to understand that every side magnifies its victories and every side minimizes its losses. Yet I’m actually beginning to feel optimistic about the possibility that Ukraine can not just survive but might kick Russia back across the border.
I have wanted to feel this way since the first Russian put his foul footprint on Ukrainian soil. But it has been hard. Russia has more soldiers, Russia has more aircraft, Russia has more missiles, Russia has more tanks, Russia has more wealth.
But Ukraine has a weapon Russia doesn’t have. It is defending its homeland. That first Russian invader and all who followed were fighting for their government. The Ukrainian defenders were fighting for their freedom. In wars I’ve covered, those who defend their homeland— even when, like in Afghanistan, they are the bad guys— have an incalculable edge.
So now, after seeing for almost eleven torturous months just how durable and determined the Ukrainian armed forces and the Ukrainian people are, it’s easier to feel optimistic.
But there are material markers too.
The first is yet another change of Russian leadership on the battlefield. A general known for his cold-blooded command in Syria was appointed only in October to run the Russian forces in Ukraine.
Last week, only three months into the job, he was replaced. Vladimir Putin would not have relieved him of the top spot if things were going well. The change is a tacit admission that they’re not. As one Russian military blogger wrote, “The sum does not change by moving around its parts.”
A second material marker that makes me optimistic is that the trend lines for Ukraine’s continued ability to fight are going up, while Russia’s apparently are sinking.
Last month, after President Zelensky made his lightning-fast visit to Washington, the United States sent its first Patriot missiles to Ukraine. They are superior to the Soviet-era defensive missiles Ukraine already has in its arsenal, with radar powerful enough to detect and target an enemy’s long-range missiles even when fired from dozens of miles away. The Germans then followed with their own shipment of Patriots. The Patriots will better protect Ukraine’s battered cities, and the infrastructure that Russia has so remorselessly pummeled.
After that, the U.S., along with Germany and France, agreed for the first time to send armored personnel carriers, known as APCs, to the battlefield. With Ukraine preparing to go on the offense against Russian forces dug-in during the winter, this will protect its troops as they move closer to the enemy.
And next, tanks. The ones dating back to Soviet times— the ones that Ukraine hasn’t already lost in battle— are wearing down. But now, finally, modern tanks are coming. With British Prime Minister Sunak declaring “the U.K.’s ambition to intensify” its support for Ukraine, it has just agreed to send Ukraine the weapon it has most assertively pleaded to get.
Poland also has committed to send some of its modern German-made tanks to Ukraine, pending approval by Germany. That should be decided at the end of this week. (The U.S., so far, has made no commitment.)
This could be inestimably good news for Ukraine. I’ve seen tanks in combat on a number of battlefields. When it comes to weapons on the ground, there is nothing more frightening, nothing more formidable. And, nothing more flexible. With months of winter weather ahead, they can move on their metal treads through terrain that will stop other vehicles in their tracks. What this means for Ukraine is an amplified ability to push Russian forces back, or at least keep them from pushing ahead.
That’s a picture of Ukraine’s weapons looking forward. Here’s a picture of Russia’s, the third material marker of the course of the war.
American military analysts say that Russian artillery, its most potent weapon for its onslaughts against Ukraine’s electrical grids, is dwindling.
U.S. defense secretary Lloyd Austin says Russia is suffering “significant shortages.” Several experts calculate that the rate of Russia’s artillery fire has dropped from roughly 20,000 rounds per day to around 5,000. Even more important, they say that Russia has exhausted almost all of its modern artillery shells and now is using some as old as 40 years. A military-focused website called DefenseOne predicts that Russia could altogether run out of artillery within months.
Then, there is the issue of Russian troops themselves. It was back in late September that Putin drafted a reported 300,000 men to go to the front lines. Russian law requires that conscripts get at least four months of training before they can be sent into combat. Russia’s Defense Ministry says that an intensive four-weeks of arms training with a "survival" course is “essential.” But after the mass conscription, the lead sentence in a story from The Moscow Times was, “Less than two weeks after joining the army, Ivan was on the frontlines of Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine and taking part in attacks on Ukrainian positions.”
More time now has passed, but the successful Ukrainian attack against a Russian barracks on New Year’s Day, which even Russia admits killed more than 60 troops (the Ukrainians say several hundred) suggests that in the rush to put men on the battlefield, the training for Russia’s new soldiers has been abbreviated if not ignored.
The war is far from over. The outcome is far from decided. Apparently unconstrained by conscience, Russia will continue to hit people’s homes and destroy people’s lives. But that isn’t getting it any closer to winning. Although analysts believe that Russia is planning a major offensive in the next month or two, in the past few months it’s been Ukraine taking back more land than Russia has seized.
With the determination and daring of people fighting for their freedom, the momentum seems to be Ukraine’s.
Over almost five decades Greg Dobbs has been a correspondent for two television networks including ABC News, a political columnist for The Denver Post and syndicated columnist for Scripps newspapers, a moderator on Rocky Mountain PBS, and author of two books, including one about the life of a foreign correspondent called “Life in the Wrong Lane.” He has covered presidencies, politics, and the U.S. space program at home, and wars, natural disasters, and other crises around the globe, from Afghanistan to South Africa, from Iran to Egypt, from the Soviet Union to Saudi Arabia, from Nicaragua to Namibia, from Vietnam to Venezuela, from Libya to Liberia, from Panama to Poland. Dobbs has won three Emmys, the Distinguished Service Award from the Society of Professional Journalists, and as a 36-year resident of Colorado, a place in the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame.
Well reasoned, Greg. When do you think Putin's cronies will have had enough? And, will he ever leave Russian again, out of fear of being apprehended and tried for war crimes? And, why the scorched earth policy? This conflict as it continues is more horror show than military campaign.